Trump’s Tariff Gamble Backfires – Why India May Actually Benefit
US President Donald Trump’s trade policies are making
headlines again — but this time, they may be helping India more than hurting
it.
Trump, while wary of China and unusually warm towards Pakistan, has taken a tough stance against India. He slapped tariffs on India, officially over its purchase of Russian oil.
But when questioned about China — the largest buyer of Russian oil — Trump gave Beijing another 90-day extension instead of punishing it.
This double standard made it clear that the
India tariffs were less about oil and more about personal politics. He also
went after BRICS for pushing “de-dollarization,” but these moves seem to be damaging
the US economy more than its rivals.
Experts Sound the Alarm
US policy analyst Ed Price told CNBC that Washington is missing a big strategic
opportunity. According to him, India could become the most influential country
of the 21st century.
If India ever joins sides in a US-China conflict, it could
decide the outcome. Price warned that Trump’s tilt towards Pakistan risks
pushing India closer to China — a potential disaster for US foreign policy.
BRICS Pushes Back
This isn’t just theory — it’s already playing out. Brazilian President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva announced an online BRICS meeting to discuss a joint
response to Trump’s tariffs. He stressed that democracy, fair trade, and
multilateralism are core BRICS values, and hinted that Washington’s tariff
gamble might fail.
India-China Warming Up
Meanwhile, economic and diplomatic shifts are underway. US consumers are paying
more for goods because of tariffs, while businesses face higher import costs.
In Asia, India and China are taking steps towards engagement. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi is set to visit Beijing for the first time in seven years, and
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will soon travel to India to meet National
Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
India is also deepening ties with Russia. Doval recently
visited Moscow, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is due there on
August 21 for talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. These moves
signal that while Trump tries to play hardball, India is quietly strengthening
its position — and may end up gaining from the very tariffs meant to pressure
it.
Trump’s Tariff War Could Push India Closer to China
– And Leave the US Isolated
Russia has long backed the revival of the
Russia-India-China (RIC) strategic grouping. While the idea had been slow to
take shape, President Donald Trump’s aggressive policies toward India, Russia,
and BRICS appear to have injected fresh urgency into the plan. Many in the bloc
now see a need to work together more closely in response to Washington’s
hardline stance. Analysts warn that Trump’s approach is “playing with fire” —
and he may not realize that he’s the one most likely to get burned. By alienating
major powers at once, the US risks losing influence in global geopolitics just
as India and China are exploring ways to improve their relationship.
India Steps Up Its Asia Outreach
India isn’t sitting still. New Delhi is strengthening its regional ties, with
planned meetings between Indian officials and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho
Hyun, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, and a visit by Prime Minister
Narendra Modi to Japan. At the same time, India is actively looking for
alternative markets to reduce its reliance on the US, a move seen as a direct
counter to Washington’s tariff pressure.
While Trump’s economic policies — often dubbed “Treponemas” — are already raising prices for US citizens, they’re also straining ties with India. The danger for Washington is that New Delhi could tilt further towards Beijing, fundamentally reshaping Asia’s power balance.
Critics argue it’s time for the US to reconsider its strategy before it’s too
late, but Trump, who jokingly calls himself the “President of Peace” and seems
focused on winning a Nobel Peace Prize, shows no sign of changing course.
Trump Declares a ‘National Emergency’
On the economic front, Trump has dramatically escalated his trade war.
Declaring April 2, 2025, as “Liberation Day” for the United States, he announced tariffs far broader and higher than many experts expected.
Invoking
the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, Trump justified the
move as a response to what he called a “national emergency” caused by large and
persistent US trade deficits.
Starting April 5, 2025, a 10% baseline tariff will be
applied to imports from all countries. Then, from April 9, higher,
country-specific tariffs will target nations with the largest trade surpluses
against the US.
“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” Trump declared in the White House Rose Garden.
His critics argue that such rhetoric
may play well to his political base, but it risks alienating key partners — and
could drive countries like India into the arms of America’s strategic rivals.
India Stays Calm as Others Push Back Against
Trump’s Tariffs
India’s reaction to President Donald Trump’s sweeping new
tariffs was measured compared to the outrage from other countries.
In an official statement issued on April 3, 2025, the Commerce Ministry said it was “carefully examining the implications” of the measures and was in talks with industry groups and exporters to understand the potential impact.
Interestingly, the statement also noted that India was looking into “opportunities that may arise” from the situation.
It reaffirmed
that India values its Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership with
the US and will continue negotiations on a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)
aimed at boosting trade to $500 billion by 2030.
This muted tone stood out in sharp contrast to the strong pushback from other affected nations. The European Union, China, and Canada all threatened “countermeasures,” while Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto called the tariffs “extremely regrettable.”
In South Korea, Acting President Han Duck-so ordered immediate support for the domestic auto industry, one of the hardest-hit sectors.
Russia — whose trade with the US is minimal, at just $3.5
billion — was notably absent from the tariff list altogether. This omission has
raised eyebrows given Trump’s otherwise aggressive stance toward Moscow’s
allies.
India Sees Small Trade Edge Despite Tariff Hit –
But Key Sectors Worry
In New Delhi, officials noted that while the US has slapped a 26% adjusted tariff on Indian goods, the rate is still lower than those imposed on some of India’s main export rivals.
Vietnam faces a 46% tariff,
Thailand and Bangladesh 37%, Sri Lanka 44%, and Pakistan 30%. This, they say,
could give India a slight “comparative advantage” in certain export markets.
Still, not everyone is optimistic. India’s $32 billion gems and jewelry industry, which sends over 30% of its exports to the US, is bracing for a blow.
The Gem & Jewlery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) warned that it will be difficult to maintain the current $10 billion export volume to the US under the new tariffs.
The Council urged the government to
speed up talks on a Bilateral Trade Agreement with Washington, calling it vital
to protect the sector’s long-term interests.
Some industries, however, expect little change. The auto
sector won’t be directly affected, as cars and auto parts were excluded from
the latest tariff list and are already covered by the 25% duty announced on
March 26.
Other sectors could feel indirect pain. Aerospace giant
Boeing may face even more supply chain headaches, potentially delaying aircraft
deliveries to Indian carriers like Air India and Akasa Air. Both airlines
already struggle to get new planes fast enough to meet demand, despite placing
massive orders for models like the Boeing 737 MAX 8.
Adding to industry nerves, Reuters quoted an unnamed
official saying President Trump is preparing a separate set of tariffs
targeting the pharmaceutical sector — a major Indian export earner.
