Elon Musk Sounds the Alarm on Population Collapse: “I’ve Been Warning Since the Turn of the Century”
For decades, the global debate on population has largely centered around fears of overpopulation. From food shortages to climate change, the narrative has often been that the planet simply cannot sustain the billions of people living on it.
But Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla and SpaceX,
has been pushing a very different warning for years: not overpopulation, but
population collapse, is the real existential threat facing humanity.
Recently, Musk reignited the debate by posting on X
(formerly Twitter) about Japan’s rapidly shrinking population. Citing official
statistics, he warned that Japan could lose nearly 1 million people by the end
of 2025. This was followed by another post in which he emphasized that he has
been ringing alarm bells about this crisis “since the turn of the century.”
Elon Musk’s Newest Warning
The latest spark came when X user Tim Pool wrote:
“The population isn’t ‘collapsing’. It has collapsed. The
shoreline is receding and no one understands the tsunami about to hit us. As US
population goes, it will be impossible to redevelop. Automation won’t replace
your customers.”
Musk reposted the comment, adding:
“I’ve been warning about this since the turn of the
century.”
This wasn’t the first time Musk raised such concerns. For
years, he has argued that declining birth rates pose far greater risks to
society than rising ones, challenging the common perception that overpopulation
is humanity’s biggest problem.
Why Musk Worries About Population Collapse
Musk believes falling birth rates could lead to:
• Economic
stagnation: With fewer young people entering the workforce, productivity and
innovation could slow.
• Labor
shortages: Key industries could face a shortage of workers, hurting both
economies and living standards.
• Civilizational
decline: Fewer children mean aging populations, which could destabilize
societies and reduce resilience against crises.
He has often said in interviews:
“Most people still think the world is overpopulated. It’s
actually the opposite. If we don’t fix this, civilization will slowly dwindle
and eventually collapse.”
Japan: The Case Study for Declining Populations
Japan has become the poster child of Musk’s warnings. With
one of the world’s lowest fertility rates and one of the oldest populations,
the country is facing a demographic crisis. In 2024, official figures revealed
900,000 more deaths than births—a staggering imbalance that Musk highlighted.
In a recent post, he wrote:
“Japan will lose almost a million people this year. This
trend was set in motion half a century ago. It has nothing to do with AI. AI is
the only hope for turning this around.”
Japan’s struggles are well-documented:
• Falling
marriage rates
• Rising
costs of child-rearing
• A
shrinking workforce
• Pressure
on social security and healthcare systems
Musk believes this is a preview of what other countries—like
South Korea, Italy, and parts of Eastern Europe—may soon face.
A Global Issue, Not Just Japan’s
While Japan is at the forefront, Musk has repeatedly warned
that the problem is global. Many advanced economies, including South Korea and
Italy, are seeing birth rates far below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children
per woman.
In South Korea, the fertility rate has dipped below 0.8, the
lowest in the world. Italy and Spain, too, are seeing rapidly aging populations
with fewer young people to support them. Eastern European countries have long
faced migration-driven population declines.
The United States, despite being younger and more
demographically stable than Europe or Japan, is not immune. Birth rates there
have also fallen sharply since the mid-2000s.
One of Musk’s more provocative claims is that artificial
intelligence could be humanity’s “only hope” in addressing this issue.
The argument is twofold:
1. Automation
and AI could fill labor gaps, reducing the economic pain of shrinking
workforces.
2. AI could
indirectly encourage higher birth rates by lowering the costs of raising
children and making life easier for parents.
Musk has consistently said that AI, robotics, and automation
will be essential to keeping economies running as populations age. However, he
also acknowledges that machines can’t replace the role of customers, consumers,
or cultural continuity.
Policy Responses: Pro-Natalism and Immigration
Governments worldwide are experimenting with policies to
address the issue:
• Pro-natalist
measures like cash incentives, parental leave, and subsidized childcare are
common in countries like France and Hungary.
• Immigration
reforms are often seen as a short-term fix to replenish workforces, though they
come with political and cultural debates.
• Some
nations, like China, have scrapped restrictions like the one-child policy in
favor of encouraging families to have more children.
Despite these efforts, Musk remains skeptical that
governments are acting fast enough.
A Longstanding Concern
Musk’s preoccupation with population decline is not new. For
over two decades, he has argued that humanity risks ignoring one of its biggest
long-term threats. While many dismissed his warnings as alarmist, more and more
demographers are beginning to echo his concerns.
Interestingly, his fear of population collapse ties directly
into his space ambitions. Musk has often said that one of the reasons he wants
to build a self-sustaining colony on Mars is to ensure humanity’s survival,
even if Earth societies falter.
Conclusion: A Warning We Can’t Ignore
Elon Musk’s latest comments may have reignited debate, but
the numbers speak for themselves. Declining birth rates and aging populations
are already reshaping economies and societies. From Japan to South Korea to
Italy, entire nations are shrinking in real time.
Whether AI will truly be the “savior” Musk envisions remains
to be seen. What is clear, however, is that his warnings are forcing
policymakers, businesses, and citizens to rethink the future
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